Daily Technical Forex Forecast 04.05.2017


EUR/USD

The euro continues trading in the consolidation below the level of resistance 1.0934 – 1.0943. The pair showed a sharp fall yesterday, but this move was on small volume, so we should pay too much attention to it.

volume euro

So our scenario for EUR/USD remains the same: we can trade this instrument only after the breakout of the consolidation.

Given the global uptrend, long positions should be considered as a more priority scenario. We can enter the market after the confident breakout of the resistance 1.0934 – 1.0943 with a further fixation of the price above it. A stop loss should be placed below the breakout volumetric bar. The first target s 1.1000, the second one – 1.1050.

buy euro

GBP/USD

The pound failed to continue growing and started trading in the consolidation. Also the market showed 2 strong bearish impulses, after which we should have closed long positions.

Unfortunately, the situation is not very clear now, so until the price go higher than the local maximum we should be out of the market.

gbp

USD/JPY

The uptrend for USD/JPY continued on Wednesday. It is necessary to highlight the new level of support 112.24 – 112.31 where large volume is concentrated. Besides it, after the test of this level the price strongly went up on large volume.

Given all these facts we should open only long positions. We can enter the market after a smooth correction, approximately 20 pips, of the price down. A stop loss should be placed below the level 112.05 (the price started growing on large volume from this level). A potential of the deal is not so big, around 60-70 pips, but the situation is still interesting.

buy jpy

USD/CAD

The price tested the support level 1.3668 – 1.3690 on Wednesday but then sharply rebounded from it. This only strengthens the meaning of this level.

Our previous scenario remains the same: we open long positions after the resumption of the growth. A stop loss should be placed below the level 1.3668. A potential of the deal is 90-100 pips.

buy cad

AUD/USD

AUD/USD showed strong and sharp fall on Wednesday. The price has broken down the support level 0.7441 – 0.7450 on large volume and is trading below it now.

It gives us an opportunity to open short positions after a smooth correction of the price. A stop loss should be placed above the breakout volumetric bar. A potential of the deal is around 80-90 pips.

sell aud

XAU/USD

Gold broke through the support level/local minimum and after the test of the new resistance 1251.50 – 1254.10 fell down strongly. In this level, large volume is concentrated, after the formation of which a rapid price decrease began.

volume gold

As can be seen from the volumetric chart, the price fall was impulsive and on very large scale, so it makes sense to consider only short positions now. In addition, the local downtrend on gold is still relevant.

We can open sales after a smooth correction of the price, approximately, to the level 1245.00 – 1246.00, in order to obtain an acceptable stop loss size and, as a result, an acceptable risk/profit ratio. A stop loss should be set above the resistance level 1251.50 – 1254.10. The first goal is a local minimum. If the price reaches this mark, we move the stop loss to the break even and stay in the market until a reversal or correction signal appears.

sell gold

The sentiment: all our deals, even gold, are confirmed by the mood of the market.

sentiment

The bottom line: AUD/USD and gold have the best situations for trading now. USD/JPY and USD/CAD are also interesting instruments.