Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – February 10, 2017


AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

AUDUSD - 10.02.2017

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the AUDUSD reversed bearish around the diagonal resistance area. Price action struggled to form a lower swing low though and has created a symmetrical triangle pattern. The AUDUSD is consolidating within the symmetrical triangle and within a horizontal channel at 0.7610-0.7660. Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance of the symmetrical triangle and the horizontal channel and if price moves out of both consolidation patterns (break-out trade).

The Bank of Australia recently decided to hold rates at 1.50%.The Australian Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. There are concerns over how a Trump led US could negatively impact the Australian economy. The US Federal Reserve have increased interest rates to 0.75%. The US Dollar could continue to strengthen long-term, if further rate hikes are expected. Trump’s latest speech provided no fiscal or economic stimulus details, causing the US Dollar to weaken. A US Preliminary Consumer Sentiment figure will be released at 1500 UTC today.

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

EURGBP - 10.02.2017

Price continues to be choppy and indecisive. The moving averages confirm the current market indecision – they are crossing frequently and are providing no clear trend direction. The EURGBP has found support around the horizontal support at 0.8500 (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around the identified horizontal levels.

The British Prime Minister has announced that Article 50 will be triggered by the end of March 2017. Most economists did believe that sterling would continue to weaken long-term but there now exists more optimism for the British pound. British Prime Minister Theresa May has provided Brexit negotiation details and announced what deal the UK government would like as they leave the EU. This has given strength to the GBP. UK Manufacturing Production data will be released at 0930 UTC today.

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart

EURUSD - 10.02.2017

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price found resistance around the trend resistance area and the horizontal resistance at 1.0710 and has been bearish. The moving averages continue to be bearish and steady, signalling that the EURUSD could move lower. Price is ranging within a horizontal channel at 1.0640-1.0710 and moving within a bearish channel. Trading opportunities could exist around the range support and resistance and if the EURUSD moves out of the range (break-out trade). Selling opportunities may exist around the bearish moving averages and around the bearish channel resistance.

The future of the Euro is very unclear (not uncertain, just indecisive). Some economists are expecting a 1.0000 parity between the Euro and US Dollar. The US Federal Reserve have increased interest rates to 0.75%. The US Dollar could continue to strengthen long-term, as further rate hikes are expected. A US Preliminary Consumer Sentiment figure will be released at 1500 UTC today.

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

GBPUSD - 10.02.2017

The GBPUSD continues to be choppy and indecisive. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they are crossing frequently and providing no clear trend direction. Trading opportunities could exist around the identified support and resistance areas and around the moving averages.

The British Prime Minister has announced that Article 50 will be triggered by the end of March 2017. Most economists did believe that sterling would continue to weaken long-term but there now exists more optimism for the British pound. British Prime Minister Theresa May has provided Brexit negotiation details and announced what deal the UK government would like as they leave the EU. This has given strength to the GBP. The US Federal Reserve have increased interest rates to 0.75%. The US Dollar could continue to strengthen long-term, as further rate hikes are expected. UK Manufacturing Production data will be released at 0930 UTC today. A US Preliminary Consumer Sentiment figure will be announced at 1500 UTC.

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

NZDUSD - 10.02.2017

The moving averages are bearish and are widening, suggesting that price could downtrend. If the NZDUSD starts retracing today and is bullish, shorting opportunities could exist around any of the key Fib levels, around the previous horizontal support levels at 0.7245, 0.7265 and 0.7285 and around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages.

New Zealand’s economy continues to seem steady, though recent unemployment data was much worse than expected. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand have kept rates at 1.75%. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Reserve have increased interest rates to 0.75%. The US Dollar could continue to strengthen long-term, as further rate hikes are expected. A US Preliminary Consumer Sentiment figure will be released at 1500 UTC today.

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

USDCAD - 10.02.2017

Price continues to retrace and has been bearish. The USDCAD was rejected at the 50.0% Fib level though and has been finding support (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Buying opportunities may exist around the longer-term moving average, around 50.0% and 61.8% Fib levels and around the bullish channel support area.

Recent Canadian economic figures have been mixed. The most recent Rate announcement and BOC press conference did not provide any suggestion that there will be a rate hike any time soon. The appreciation of OIL has given some strength to the Canadian Dollar. The US Federal Reserve have increased interest rates to 0.75%. The US Dollar could continue to strengthen long-term, as further rate hikes are expected. Canadian Employment data will be announced at 1330 UTC today. This is followed by a US Preliminary Consumer Sentiment figure at 1500 UTC.

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

USDCHF - 10.02.2017

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the USDCHF found support around the bullish channel support area and price has been bullish. The moving averages are bullish and steady, suggesting that the USDCHF could continue to move higher. Long opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around the trend support area. Price could stall or reverse bearish around the bullish channel resistance.

The US Federal Reserve increased interest rates to 0.75%. The US Dollar could continue to strengthen long-term, as further rate hikes are expected. The Swing France may see added strength if political uncertainty in the US continues. A US Preliminary Consumer Sentiment figure will be released at 1500 UTC today.

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart

USDJPY - 10.02.2017

The USDJPY has been very bullish and has moved higher (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The moving averages have crossed bullish and are widening, suggesting that price could move higher. Buying opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages and the previous horizontal resistance at 112.50.

The Bank of Japan have kept interest rates at a low of -0.10%. The Yen may see added strength if political uncertainty in the US continues. The US Federal Reserve recently increased interest rates to 0.75%. The US Dollar could continue to strengthen long-term, as further rate hikes are expected. A US Preliminary Consumer Sentiment figure will be released at 1500 UTC today.

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

XAUUSD - 10.02.2017

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, GOLD has started retracing and has been bearish. Buying opportunities could exist around any of the key Fib levels and around the previous horizontal resistance levels at 1223.90 and 1213.00.